This article appeared on ConservativeHome on the 31st October 2022.
In 1997, a 15 year old version of me stayed up late with my grandfather to celebrate a Tony Blair victory. Growing up in a Labour supporting family, in what was thought to be a ‘Labour town’, I’ve watched as Labour’s majority was eroded over two decades, from 40 per cent in 1997 to just nine per cent in 2017 – before Johnsonian Conservatism saw me elected in 2019 with a 10 per cent majority.
There’s been lots written about Labour’s decline, from support for the Iraq war to unlimited migration, particularly after the A8 Eastern European accession. The truth, of course, is much more nuanced. It was a combination of all of these things and others, a feeling of being left behind, of being ignored by a Westminster elite – and Johnson’s 2019 manifesto spoke to that. ‘Levelling up’ cut through.
Like many of my constituents, my journey to the Conservative family included a stint with UKIP. I first joined the Conservatives in 2009, and then left in 2012 when I considered the party not to be listening to its membership or its voters – predominantly on our European membership, but also on other matters around the periphery, migration being one of them. I wasn’t alone, and I spent much of my time talking to voters who felt exactly the same.
In 2015, I was the UKIP candidate for Workington, taking nearly 20 per cent of the vote. I came back after the referendum, with a renewed sense of hope, to the party I consider my political home. The EU elections in May 2019 proved to be another watershed moment, breaking generational voting ties with the Labour Party across working-class communities in my seat, which led to an historic result the following December.
The Labour Party haven’t fixed the issues that drove their voters away en masse, and don’t look likely to in the near future. But I’m now fearful that the Conservatives are about to make some of the same historical mistakes of not listening to the membership and our voters.
If we don’t avoid the bear traps, we will face another attack from a new ‘son of UKIP’ force that could unwittingly hand power to a coalition of Labour, Liberal Democrats, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, who would then undoubtedly rig the system so that we can never win again.
Our 2019 manifesto, which Rishi Sunak has recently confirmed his intention to deliver, offered many things to my constituents in Workington.
Significant progress has been made on many of them. Cumbria Police now has more police officers than at any point in history, and we’re bringing hundreds of acres of brownfield land back into scope, with various multi-million pound infrastructure projects. There are more job opportunities and career paths available for our young people than at any point under previous Labour MPs and governments, and the median weekly wage in my constituency is at its highest ever – in the top 30 per cent of the country, way above regional and national median incomes.
But there are other things we need to tackle, and quickly. We promised 50 million GP appointments, while my constituents in my largest town would be satisfied with knowing they’d just be able to see a doctor when they need to; and we promised that we’d extend the right to buy to housing association tenants, giving them the opportunity to own their own home, without leaving behind what has often been significant investment in their family home.
We also promised that there would be fewer lower-skilled migrants, that overall numbers would come down, and that we would ensure that the British people are always in control. But just as during that period when we were challenged by UKIP, the British people are increasingly feeling, again, as though they are not in control.
I recently had to fight the Home Office who, against the wishes of the then Home Secretary, wanted to commandeer an entire hotel for asylum seekers in one of my wards that has significant issues with drugs and anti-social behaviour – issues that existed when I moved from the adjacent street seven years ago. My police force has proven its inability to deal with these issues. Along with the Labour county council, it has proven that it cannot cater for the needs of refugees or deal with community tensions that arise.
Had the Home Office simply investigated the number of drugs and violence-related issues around the hotel while it was being used to ensure ‘all in’ during Covid, or as a bail hostel, they would simply never have entertained the idea. Nor would it had it looked at the significant investment that it has been putting into the ward to deal with societal issues. What the Home Office giveth with one hand, it seems intent to take away with the other. And we know that their next step is simply to cut MPs out of the process altogether.
There is a push across Government departments for an increase in work visas and a relaxation of English language rules, and I fear recent Cabinet changes dilute the voices pushing back. Others around the table believe that we need immigration for growth, which betrays a thinking that is only about growing overall GDP, rather than GDP per capita.
In the year to mid-2022, a record 1.1 million residence visas were granted to non-UK nationals. Like me, my constituents are happy for our new points-based immigration system, itself a 2019 manifesto promise unable to be implemented before Brexit, to be used to fill gaps in our labour supply.
But they have two caveats: with 5.3 million Brits on out-of-work benefits, the system should not be used to import unskilled labour; and that with 38,000 crossing the English Channel in small boats so far this year, we have no political movement on immigration at all.
Sunak’s reappointment of Suella Braverman is to be welcomed. Whether it was just a sop to the right, payment for support in the recent leadership election, or motivated by a real desire to get a grip of this issue remains to be seen – but how Labour’s hounding of her is handled going forward will be a significant test of this government.
Braverman has, to my mind, what it takes to fix this crisis. But she needs to be supported by Cabinet and the Prime Minister. Labour know this, and know too that getting a grip of immigration against their advocacy for open borders and their softness on immigration will be our secret weapon at the next election. This is what motivates their incessant noise rather than the sending of any email. They think they spot a crack in our defences, and will focus all their efforts in that direction in the hope that it gives.
Sunak must stand firm to firm to deliver immigration control, and our other promises, to our voters in Workington
